of GDP · core defence · 2026e
from 1.35% in 2014
Public briefing · NATO data
2.43% of GDP. Rank 15. That is Romania on NATO’s scoreboard.
Country spending tables (closed 3 July) plus what Allies sealed in Ankara (7–8 July): how much Romania spends, on what, where it sits next to Poland and the Baltics, and how far 3.5% and 5% still are.
#15
rank among Allies
15 of 31
+149%
real growth 2014→2026e
spending almost tripled in real terms
38%
of the budget on equipment
was 16% in 2014
+1.1
p.p. short of 3.5%
still needed to hit the 3.5% core guideline
Alliance-scale numbers (Europe, US, 5%)
634
Europe & Canada · core 2026e
bn USD · 2021 prices
1,364
Cumulative extra since 2014
Europe & Canada · bn USD · 2021 prices
5
Allies at 3.5% core
projected in 2026
5
Allies at overall 5%
projected in 2026
634 · 850
Europe & Canada vs US
core bn USD · 2026e · 2021 prices
Romania — where we stand
Above the old 2%. Short of the new bar.
Core defence is at 2.43% of GDP — past the old 2% guideline, still below the 3.5% core target.
2.43%
of GDP · core defence · 2026e
from 1.35% in 2014
#15
rank among Allies · core % GDP · 2026e
15 of 31 Allies
+149%
real growth · 2014→2026e
37.8%
of core budget on equipment · 2026e
from 15.8% in 2014
7.5
bn USD · 2021 prices · 2026e
$395
per capita · 2026e
from $151 in 2014
+1.07 p.p.
short of 3.5% core guideline
+2.57 p.p.
short of 5% overall Hague goal
The story in three lines
- Romania crossed and held the old 2% guideline after 2020, with a dip in 2022–23 and a clear climb again from 2024.
- Money is shifting toward equipment: personnel remains the largest slice, under half of the budget, with more room for kit.
- Among Eastern-flank peers, Romania sits below Poland and the Baltic states on % of GDP and above several Western Allies. In Ankara, Romania joined the GlobalEye AWACS coalition of 11 Allies.
Worth keeping
Five things you only see when you open the tables
Drawn from the same NATO series you can open below.
Romania’s remaining gaps — and a place in GlobalEye
From 2.43% core, about 1.1 points remain to 3.5% core and about 2.6 to 5% overall if related investment fills the rest. In parallel, Romania is among the 11 Allies buying Saab GlobalEye as NATO’s new AWACS.
Structure matters as much as totals
Romania’s equipment share of core spending rose from about 16% to about 38%. Personnel still takes the largest slice, under half of the bill now, with more going into kit.
The Eastern flank sets the pace on share of GDP
Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Poland lead the 2026e ranking. Romania is about 15th among Allies at 2.43% — above the old 2%, below the Baltic-Polish pack, above much of Western Europe.
Ankara: year one of a ten-year climb
One year after The Hague, total defence and security is already around 4% of GDP (Rutte). The tables show who spends what on core; Ankara added procurements, industry and capability packages on top.
Europe is accelerating; the US is still larger in level
European Allies and Canada have piled up over a trillion dollars in extra core spending since 2014 (constant 2021 prices). Absolute US levels remain higher. Growth is European; scale is still American.
2026e · core defence as % of GDP
Who spends what share of their economy
Sorted by projected 2026 core defence expenditure as a share of GDP. Gold marks Romania. Lines show the legacy 2% guideline, the 3.5% core target, and the 5% overall Hague goal.
2% legacy
3.5% core
5% overall
1
Lithuania
5.33
2
Estonia
5.10
3
Latvia
4.92
4
Poland
4.68
5
Greece
3.65
6
Denmark
3.49
7
Sweden
3.22
8
Norway
3.17
9
United States
3.17
10
Türkiye
2.85
11
Germany
2.69
12
Finland
2.65
13
Netherlands
2.58
14
United Kingdom
2.56
15
Romania
2.43
16
Bulgaria
2.22
17
France
2.22
18
Montenegro
2.17
19
Albania
2.15
20
Canada
2.13
21
Italy
2.10
22
Portugal
2.10
23
Hungary
2.09
24
North Macedonia
2.09
25
Croatia
2.03
26
Luxembourg
2.03
27
Slovak Republic
2.02
28
Czechia
2.01
29
Belgium
2.00
30
Spain
2.00
31
Slovenia
1.61
2014–2026e
How the share moved over time
Romania against the NATO Europe & Canada average and selected Eastern-flank peers. Switch to absolute spending (constant 2021 dollars) for dollar levels as well as ratios.
Budget structure
What the money buys
NATO splits core defence into equipment, personnel, infrastructure, and other. Romania’s equipment share rose from about 16% to about 38% — a clear modernization mark, visible across much of the Eastern flank.
Romania · equipment vs personnel
2014
2026e
Equipment
Personnel
Infrastructure
Other
Equipment share · 2026e · selected Allies
Alliance macro
Europe is catching up on growth; the US still leads on level
Since 2014, European Allies and Canada have piled up over a trillion dollars in extra core defence spending (constant 2021 prices). Absolute US levels remain higher; the European share of the Alliance effort has grown sharply since 2022.
Cumulative extra core spending · Europe & Canada
billion USD · 2021 prices · since 2014 baseline
Core defence expenditure levels
billion USD · 2021 prices
Europe & Canada · core + defence-related investment
From 2025, NATO also reports defence- and security-related investment (capped at 1.5% of GDP in the aggregate series). Together with core, the Europe & Canada picture approaches 4% of GDP — still short of 5%. That is the Ankara checkpoint in one chart.
Eastern flank
Neighbours on the same map
Same metrics, same year. The Baltic states and Poland lead on share of GDP; Romania sits with them in the rearming group, with real growth of about 149% since 2014.
LithuaniaLTU
5.33%
47.6%
+777%
20.2
EstoniaEST
5.10%
40.1%
+232%
5.1
LatviaLVA
4.92%
40.1%
+536%
8.3
PolandPOL
4.68%
55.9%
+284%
263.6
RomaniaROU
2.43%
37.8%
+149%
80.3
BulgariaBGR
2.22%
29.4%
+138%
27.3
HungaryHUN
2.09%
38.8%
+227%
20.6
CzechiaCZE
2.01%
25.1%
+178%
32.1
Slovak RepublicSVK
2.02%
25.2%
+164%
14.1
How we got here
From the 2% guideline to the 5% plan
Two layers of evidence sit together here: the multi-year spending tables, and the Ankara decisions that turn those tables into politics and hardware.
- 2014 Wales Summit Allies adopt the 2% of GDP defence guideline after Crimea.
- 2022+ Full-scale war Russia’s war on Ukraine drives a sharp rise in European core spending.
- 2025 The Hague New goal: 5% of GDP by 2035 — at least 3.5% core + up to 1.5% related security investment.
- 3 Jul 2026 Spending tables Cut-off for the country series in the Defence Investment update (2025–26 estimates). Separate from the Summit texts of 7–8 July.
- Summit week 7–8 Jul 2026 Ankara Summit Declaration and Industry Forum: stocktake of the 5% path, new procurements, industrial and capability packages.
Ankara, 7–8 July 2026
What the Summit sealed
Beyond the July 3 spending cut-off, Allies put numbers and projects on the table in Ankara. These are political and industrial commitments, not a second run of the GDP tables.
+$139 bn core in 2025
European Allies and Canada raised core defence investment by more than USD 139 billion in 2025 — cited in the Ankara Declaration as delivery on The Hague commitment.
>$50 bn new procurements
Ankara announced more than USD 50 billion in new procurements, plus a push to expand manufacturing capacity and cut defence trade barriers among Allies.
Around 4% already
Secretary General Mark Rutte: total defence and security spending already measures around 4% of GDP one year into the ten-year 5% effort — focus shifting from targets to delivery.
€70 bn for Ukraine (2026)
Allies pledge €70 billion in military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine in 2026, and at least equivalent levels in 2027.
Romania in GlobalEye AWACS
Eleven Allies — including Romania — announced joint procurement of Saab GlobalEye as NATO’s new Airborne Warning and Control System, modernising Alliance airborne surveillance.
Industry & fuel
Also from Ankara week: NATO Drone Edge (USD 40 bn over five years for counter-drone systems) and about €27 bn to modernise the Alliance fuel supply chain toward the east.
How the metrics work
2%, 3.5% and 5% are not the same bar
The charts use NATO core defence. Related investment and Summit packages sit beside that series — they answer different questions.
Core vs related
Core defence is what NATO counts for armed forces under its own definitions — pay, equipment, operations, pensions to retirees. The related basket (up to 1.5% of GDP) covers critical infrastructure, networks, civil readiness and the defence industry. Most charts here are core only.
2% → 3.5% → 5%
2% was the post-2014 guideline. At The Hague: at least 3.5% core by 2035, plus up to 1.5% related, for 5% overall. A country can clear 2% and still sit below 3.5% core.
Tables vs Summit texts
The country tables close on 3 July 2026 (with e for estimates). The Ankara Declaration and Industry Forum (7–8 July) record political and procurement decisions. Both belong in this briefing; they are not the same document.
Data
Browse the series
Filter by country. Metrics from NATO tables: share of GDP, constant-dollar spending, real change, equipment share, personnel.
| Country | % GDP 2026e | % GDP 2014 | USD m 2026e* | Real change % | Equip. % 26e | Pers. (k) 26e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | 5.33 | 0.88 | 4,030 | 777.2 | 47.6 | 20.2 |
| Estonia | 5.10 | 1.90 | 1,863 | 232.2 | 40.1 | 5.1 |
| Latvia | 4.92 | 0.97 | 1,975 | 535.9 | 40.1 | 8.3 |
| Poland | 4.68 | 1.86 | 37,515 | 284.0 | 55.9 | 263.6 |
| Greece | 3.65 | 2.24 | 9,126 | 94.7 | 37.7 | 113.1 |
| Denmark | 3.49 | 1.15 | 15,651 | 294.0 | 34.7 | 18.5 |
| Sweden | 3.22 | 1.07 | 21,538 | 271.3 | 25.4 | 26.8 |
| Norway | 3.17 | 1.50 | 17,945 | 157.1 | 18.0 | 28.0 |
| United States | 3.17 | 3.71 | 850,211 | 13.8 | 28.3 | 1,321.9 |
| Türkiye | 2.85 | 1.44 | 28,828 | 239.8 | 30.1 | 395.8 |
| Germany | 2.69 | 1.16 | 119,159 | 155.2 | 32.1 | 183.2 |
| Finland | 2.65 | 1.46 | 7,855 | 99.9 | 36.7 | 28.1 |
| Netherlands | 2.58 | 1.12 | 29,512 | 185.9 | 33.7 | 47.3 |
| United Kingdom | 2.56 | 2.13 | 89,242 | 41.7 | 37.2 | 125.9 |
| Romania | 2.43 | 1.35 | 7,483 | 149.2 | 37.8 | 80.3 |
| Bulgaria | 2.22 | 1.31 | 2,169 | 138.3 | 29.4 | 27.3 |
| France | 2.22 | 1.82 | 70,471 | 39.4 | 34.1 | 202.0 |
| Montenegro | 2.17 | 1.51 | 158 | 106.5 | 46.1 | 2.0 |
| Albania | 2.15 | 1.34 | 469 | 138.1 | 52.6 | 6.9 |
| Canada | 2.13 | 1.01 | 48,246 | 161.7 | 25.0 | 77.1 |
| Italy | 2.10 | 1.13 | 49,334 | 108.2 | 24.5 | 191.6 |
| Portugal | 2.10 | 1.31 | 6,288 | 106.1 | 34.0 | 30.5 |
| Hungary | 2.09 | 0.86 | 4,077 | 226.5 | 38.8 | 20.6 |
| North Macedonia | 2.09 | 1.09 | 339 | 156.0 | 30.5 | 6.1 |
| Croatia | 2.03 | 1.81 | 1,723 | 65.3 | 23.4 | 14.3 |
| Luxembourg | 2.03 | 0.37 | 1,188 | 353.1 | 51.8 | 1.0 |
| Slovak Republic | 2.02 | 0.98 | 2,584 | 163.8 | 25.2 | 14.1 |
| Czechia | 2.01 | 0.94 | 6,382 | 178.2 | 25.1 | 32.1 |
| Belgium | 2.00 | 0.97 | 13,027 | 147.6 | 27.1 | 22.9 |
| Spain | 2.00 | 0.92 | 34,649 | 183.0 | 34.0 | 119.9 |
| Slovenia | 1.61 | 0.98 | 1,091 | 124.5 | 27.8 | 5.9 |
* Constant 2021 prices and exchange rates.
Read carefully
Definitions, summits, limits
Core defence expenditure means payments a government makes for its armed forces, other Allies, the Alliance, or wider defence and security objectives — under NATO’s agreed definitions, not necessarily under national budget labels.
Equipment includes major equipment and research and development devoted to major equipment. Personnel includes pensions paid to retirees. Figures may diverge from media reports and national budgets.
Defence- and security-related investment (up to 1.5% of GDP) covers critical infrastructure, defence networks, civil preparedness, innovation, and the defence industrial base. It is separate from core defence.
At The Hague Summit (June 2025), Allies committed to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defence requirements and defence- and security-related investments by 2035. The working split is at least 3.5% core plus up to 1.5% related.
Two layers: (1) Defence Investment country tables, cut-off 3 July 2026, years “e” estimated; (2) Ankara Summit (7–8 July 2026) — Declaration, Industry Forum and capability announcements (including GlobalEye AWACS with Romania among 11 Allies). Iceland has no armed forces and is omitted from defence series.
Sources
NATO Defence Investment update (tables, 3 July cut-off / published 7 July) and Ankara Summit texts (7–8 July 2026).